Well, the election results are in.
“JIP acting leader Yorihisa Matsuno was certain to lose in Kumamoto Constituency No. 1, with the results of the proportional representation bloc pending.” http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001790536
Since the publication of this article, it has been reported in the Japanese press that Matsuno (who defected from the Democratic Party to join Osaka mayor Hashimoto’s Japan Innovation Party’ [Ishin no to]) got a seat in the proportional representation bloc.
With these results, Kumamoto looks even more conservative than the country as a whole. Four of the five single-seat constituencies were won by an LDP candidate and one was kept by a candidate from the ultra-conservative, anti-foreign Jisedia Party (Sonoda of Kumamoto’s Constituency No. 4). For information about the anti-foreign advertising of this reactionary party, see http://www.debito.org/?p=12904
Fortunately, in other regions of Japan, the Jisedai Party lost big. Even the party’s famous leader Ishihara Shintaro, known for his long history of hateful, anti-foreign statements, lost his seat. Sonoda’s seat is one of just two in the country that the party kept. Sonoda’s only challenger was a candidate from the Japanese Communist Party.
By the way, in most of Japan, Communist Party candidates cannot win in single-seat constituencies but they succeeded in winning such a seat in Okinawa in this election. The Communist Party was the primary beneficiary of protests votes and gained seats in proportional representations blocs. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/12/14/national/politics-diplomacy/resurgent-jcp-has-night-to-remember
Nonetheless, protest voters seem to have stayed home at higher rates than LDP supporters. Though Abe’s poll ratings have been split between those who support him and those who do not, he was able to maintain a clear majority in the Diet. Why? One factor was low voter turnout. The percentage of those qualified to vote who actually took the trouble to do so was just 52% – perhaps the lowest since the end of World War II. My view is that the conservatives did a better job of mobilizing their supporters and that people who don’t like the Abe administration but are also not big fans of opposition parties like the Communist Party were more likely to stay home because they didn’t feel they had anyone they really wanted to vote for. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20141214/k10013964051000.html
Nationally, the LDP seems poised to change Japan’s peace constitution.
Posted by Kirk.
