TropicalStormRisk.com updated its predictions since my last post. Unfortunately, the needle is moving in the wrong direction. Now the prediction is for a Category 4 storm! A storm that lands as a Category 4 would be a more powerful storm than Katrina when it hit New Orleans in 2005; Katrina was a Category 3 when it landed. Category 4 cyclones have wind speeds of 209-251 kph or 130-156 mph. Moreover, the prediction now shows the storm landing just north of Kumamoto City. To use a bowling analogy, this is Kumamoto’s “strike zone.” As I have written before, typhoons and hurricanes in the northern hemisphere spin counter clockwise. For this reason, winds coming from a cyclone slightly to our north come from the ocean to strike with full force. When a typhoon passes slightly to our south the winds to have to travel over the Aso mountains before the hit people in Kumamoto City.
So, let’s all hope for the best but those of you in vulnerable areas or those of you who are planning to travel at that time should be aware that you might need to change your plans in order to insure your safety.
– Kirk