According to http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com, all regions of Kumamoto are quite likely to be experiencing tropic storm winds (see key in second image) in about 24 hours. Over the years, my experience with this site (TropicalStorm.com, that is) is that actual events are sometimes considerably less severe than predicted but, importantly, are sometimes more severe. Since weather and climate are chaotic systems (that is, systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions), prediction is never an exact science. It’s better to err on the side of caution.
Also, I heard on TV that it’s possible that wind and rain will pick up just as the system is about to leave our area. This is because cyclones spin counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and so air and moisture from the southwest may be sucked in just after the system passes overhead. At any rate, I’d like to encourage everyone to take this seriously – assume the worst, and hope for the best.
– Kirk
P.S. I also heard on TV that the arrival of the storm will coincide with high tide. This could cause a dangerous storm surge in coastal areas. Please plan ahead so that you don’t wind up in the wrong place at the wrong time.