China’s eight-ton prototype space station, Tiangong-1, or “heavenly palace”, has decided it’s had enough of space and so will make an uncontrolled plunge to Earth, likely re-entering the atmosphere around Sunday, April 1st. Most of it will burn up, but a few chunks may survive and wack water or land here or there.
The most likely wack points are at the extremities of its orbital latitudes – 43° North and 43° South. The center figure below shows Tiangog-1’s orbit, and the figure at right shows impact probability along given latitudes (click for an enlarged view). You’ll notice Japan - indeed, Kyushu itself - is way up there, probability-wise, though perspective-wise, your marrying Kumamon and having “half” children remains far more likely than being wacked.
Still, if you do happen to be whacked by a piece of satellite this weekend, you’ll know where it came from. - William