Kirk here with a bit more about our earthquake situation.

Kirk here with a bit more about our earthquake situation.

After yesterday’s earthquake, Japan is, as the article states, “on alert for the heightened possibility of a huge earthquake that could cause immense loss of life and property across a wide stretch of the central and western parts of the country.” The article provides some basic information about what the “Nankai Trough” is and how to prepare for a major earthquake that might hit it.

Kumamoto is near the western edge of the Nankai trough; just as we felt the effects of yesterday’s quake we may be significantly affected by a large Nankai trough earthquake, even thought we are not sitting right on top of it.

Here’s a worst-case scenario: “Such an earthquake could shake much of central and western Japan, simultaneously or in succession, at a magnitude of up to 9, and lead to a tsunami of more than 30 meters in height. This could result in 242,000 deaths, according to a 2023 government document.”

Magnitude 9 would be about 354.8 times the energy of the M 7.3 quake we experienced in 2016 (according to ChatGPT). (Remember, magnitude is logarithmic, not linear, so 8 is not just “one step” above 7.) A magnitude 9 was what devastated Eastern Japan in 2011.