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I'll be taking a group of university students to Minamata for an overnight trip next weekend (July 15th to 16th). It's a mixed group of Japanese students and exchange students from various countries. I'm posting about it here because I would like to invite interested university students (any university in the area and, of course, students of any nationality) to join us. We already have about 20 people but it would be nice to have a few more.
On Saturday, the 15th, after lunch at Fukuda Noen (located on a mountain by the sea; see second picture for a sample of the view) we'll visit Hot House, a facility in which people with congenital Minamata disease work (first picture). I've gone there almost every year for quite some time now and it's always very interesting and enlightening to actually meet people whose lives have been deeply affected by mercury poisoning, not just hear a lecture about them. We'll also tour various points related to the history of Minamata disease.
Saturday night we'll stay in an onsen ryokan (hot spring inn) in the Yunotsuru area, a picturesque village in the mountains near Minamata that is famous for its hot springs and terraced rice paddies. Sunday we'll have fun visiting a "roller luge" facility in Ashikita and going to the beach in Otachimisaki (third picture). If you are interested, please fill out the following form:
https://goo.gl/MuF6Zk
Costs including transportation, meals, entrance fess, etc. will be slightly over 10,000 yen (relatively cheap as such overnight trips go). If more people want to go than we have room for, people will be accepted on a first come, first serve basis.
If you have any questions, please go ahead and fill out the form, check the "not sure" option, and type in your question. I'll get back to you by e-mail.
-- Kirk

According to yesterday's RKK evening news, the heavy rain has been caused by "back-building" systems that dump large amounts of rain in one area without seeming to move much. Here's an explanation from Wikipedia:
"A back-building thunderstorm, commonly referred to as a training thunderstorm, is a thunderstorm in which new development takes place on the upwind side (usually the west or southwest side in the Northern Hemisphere), such that the storm seems to remain stationary or propagate in a backward direction. Though the storm often appears stationary on radar, or even moving upwind, this is an illusion. The storm is really a multi-cell storm with new, more vigorous cells that form on the upwind side, replacing older cells that continue to drift downwind. When this happens, catastrophic flooding is possible."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderstorm#Back-building_thunderstorm
The image was taken from an academic paper on the topic:
http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2006/abstracts/Session02/2_4_Schumacher.pdf
-- Kirk

One more note: The red and purple areas are at high risk for landslides. If you are in a vulnerable location, you may want to consider evasive action. If you are considering driving, I recommend that you avoid mountainous roads in red and purple areas. This information was taken from:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/doshamesh/
-- Kirk
P.S. Even as the rain settles down, the soaked earth on slopes can be dangerous. Let's home we don't get any quakes before the water can drain out of the soil.

Tornado warnings have been issued for some parts of Kumamoto. English information about such warning can be found at
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/
It's good that the JMA puts this information out in English as well as in Japanese, but it's easy to miss. There is a list of warnings for Kumamoto
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/349_table.html
but no mention is made of tornados there. Actually, the same problem exists on the Japanese site. If they could do a better job of collating and cross referencing the Japanese information it would do a world of good. First, Japanese people wouldn't have sit and painstakingly try to find information at a time when if might be necessary to move quickly to take evasive action. Second, better organization of the Japanese information would probably lead to a similar improvements on the English side of the site, which tends to mirror the Japanese.
By the way, here's a little review of two useful sites to help you watch the weather until things calm down. First, my favorite radar site:
https://weather.yahoo.co.jp/weather/zoomradar/
It gives you a pretty good sense of where the rain clouds are now and where they are headed. It is based on the same information as the JMA site but allows you to zoom in to your own neighborhood.
To check on evacuation information go to
https://crisis.yahoo.co.jp/evacuation/43/
This is in Japanese but you can translate it with the Google Chrome browser.
-- Kirk

To add to the fun, the Meteorology Agency has issued a tornado and strong wind warning for the Kumamoto, Amakusa, Ashikita, and Kuma regions. Strange as I'd just taken my dog out during a break in the deluge (thank you, JMA!), and there wasn't a breath of wind. Perhaps the calm before another storm. Hold on to your 帽子, just in case. - William

From the Kumamoto International "Whoops" Desk: A concrete two-story shop/house damaged in the quakes was condemned by the city, which contracted with a demolition company who farmed out the work to a subcontractor that got right on it until, halfway through the job, they realized the building they were demolishing was wood, not concrete, so they stopped. Figuring out the correct building was next door, they went ahead and demolished that, but the real estate company (uh-oh) which owns the partially dismantled building is not happy. Negotiations for compensation are underway.
A bit of humor (as long as you're not the ones who screwed up) to lighten a rainy day.
Story and photo at Kumanichi (partially dismantled house left, now demolished concrete house right):
https://this.kiji.is/255528254693475834?c=92619697908483575
誤って隣の建物壊す　地震の公費解体工事　熊本市中央区 - 熊本日日新聞
公費解体の対象物件と取り違えられ、一部解体された空き店舗（左）。本来、解体対象だった店舗兼住宅は解体され、更地となっている＝熊本市中央区　熊本市は５日、熊本地震で被災した建物の公費解体事業で、業者が解体対象を誤り、被災していない別の建物を一...

Due to the deluge of news regarding the, uh, deluge, stories and updates will be collected below in the comments section.

Check
https://crisis.yahoo.co.jp/evacuation/43/
for more information about evacuation notices. You'll need Google's Chrome browser if you want to translate the Japanese into English. -- Kirk

NHK's evening news warned that Kumamoto was likely to get heavy rain in the early hours tomorrow morning. As the situation changes, the following URL may help you get a sense of the level of danger in your area.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/349.html
In regard to calls for evacuations, I doubt that I'll be able to post updates here very frequently. For information about how to learn about evacuation notices on the web please see
https://www.facebook.com/Kumamotoi/photos/a.129499733790134.25925.123734781033296/1510930188980408/?type=3&theater
Currently, evacuation is being recommended for parts of Oguni.
-- Kirk

Not Kumamoto but alarmingly close:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20170705/p2g/00m/0dm/070000c
-- Kirk
River flooding reported in Fukuoka as heavy rain hits western Japan - The Mainichi
FUKUOKA (Kyodo) -- Rivers reportedly flooded in a city in Fukuoka Prefecture on Wednesday, the prefectural government said, as torrential rain hit the northern part of the main island of Kyushu in western Japan.

Torrential rain alert issued for Fukuoka after typhoon：The Asahi Shimbun
FUKUOKA--The Meteorological Agency warned of torrential rain in 16 municipalities across Fukuoka Pre

The JMA (Japan Meteorology Agency) has a very useful page for checking on flood danger. As you can see in this video, it has an animation function that can help you get a sense of how the situation is changing. Here's the URL:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/suigaimesh/flood.html
I was prompted to look at this today because of flood warnings for Fukuoka, to our north. I'll post a bit more about that in a minute. -- Kirk

The village of Nakashima in Yamato-machi straddles the road halfway between the small town of Kosa and the smaller town of Yabe. Mostly agriculture and forest, it once served as a rest stop between the two towns with a few restaurants and stores for those weary of the poor road, but the new road is so smooth that travelers no longer even notice the village, and the shops all closed. 12 years ago, they also lost their elementary school - the few remaining youngsters are now bused to Kosa, and the building was converted to an aged care facility. On the old school grounds, though, remains the symbol and pride of their village, a huge evergreen oak, a sapling gifted from Jingu Shrine in Nara in 1940 - 24 meters tall, 4 meters in girth and covered with moss, under which all community events take place.
It toppled in yesterday's typhoon. Everyone in the village is devastated by this, but hope perseveres. One villager said, "The roots remain firm. We will somehow care for it so that it can recover."
The full story and photo are at Kumanichi: https://this.kiji.is/254948436612269562?c=92619697908483575
- William
地域のシンボル、カシの大木横倒し　山都町 - 熊本日日新聞
台風３号の強風で倒れたとみられるカシの大木＝山都町　山都町北中島の旧中島西部小にあり、住民に親しまれてきたカシの大木が４日、台風３号の強風で根元付近から折れ横倒しになった。地域のシンボルの無残な姿に、住民は「まさか倒れるなんて」と落胆してい...

"Around 68,500 households suffered brief blackouts in Nagasaki and Kumamoto prefectures in southwestern Japan, while power outages were also reported in Oita, Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, the Kyushu Electric Power Co. said."
-- Copied and pasted by Kirk
https://japantoday.com/category/national/update1-typhoon-nanmadol-makes-landfall-in-nagasaki
Typhoon makes landfall in Nagasaki
Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall in Nagasaki Tuesday morning, the weather agency said, bringing heavy rain to Japan's southwestern regions and causing blackouts and traffic disruptions. The season's third typhoon, recording winds of up to 151 kilometers per hour, is expected to continue moving toward…

Click on the article to see two pictures of damage in Kumamoto. -- Kirk
Typhoon hits Nagasaki, torrential rain expected across Japan - The Mainichi
Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall near the city of Nagasaki at around 8 a.m. on July 4, and is expected to bring heavy rain across the country. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of landslides, rising rivers, flooding, as well as tidal waves.

This is my mea culpa. I wrote that I didn't think the winds would be too strong but, well, we all know that wasn't exactly how things played out. It seems to be true that the system wasn't particularly powerful as typhoons go. The RKK evening news report cited two factors for the strength of the winds in Kumamoto City, despite the relative weakness of the system. The first was the angle at which it hit Kumamoto. In the northern hemisphere tropical systems spin counterclockwise. So, if you look at the image, the area south of the eye of the storm was blowing to the east. The second factor was that the storm was moving very quickly to the east, adding to the speed of the easterly winds that were blowing to the south of the storm center. Kumamoto City was just south of the center of the storm so we experienced high winds, as did Amakusa and Aso.
Though it wasn't mentioned in the RKK broadcast, another factor is that, if my understanding is correct, winds coming off of flat seas tend to be stronger than winds that are buffered by mountains and forests. So, it seems that, despite the relative weakness of the system, various factors conspired to maximize the damage caused by this storm in Kumamoto.
Over the years, I've occasionally been accused of being rather alarmist . . . even of "crying wolf" when putting out storm information. This time, I was a bit too sanguine. It really is hard to know just what to expect ahead of time.
Though it sounds like a hackneyed truism, I guess "hope for the best but prepare for the worst" sums up the lesson I've gotten from this storm. :(
-- Kirk

I saw this on NHK's evening news. I'm not sure by it may be a point on the East Bypass. If I'm wrong about the location, please let me know. -- Kirk
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/07/04/national/nanmadol-third-typhoon-season-makes-landfall-nagasaki-prefecture/
Nanmadol, third typhoon of season, moves northeast along Japan's Pacific coast | The Japan Times
Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall in Nagasaki Prefecture on Tuesday morning, the Meteorological Agency said, bringing heavy rain to Japan's southwestern regio

It may be an old wives tale (in fact, it reached me via my old wife), but apparently the path of the first typhoon of the season is often followed by subsequent ones. So we have that to look forward to.
I just arrived at Kumadai and was surprised to see that half of an immense Japanese elm (椋木, mukunoki) had split and fallen on three cars parked beneath. Emergency crews are arriving, but the car owners certainly won't be driving home tonight. Hint: Not a good idea to park your car under a large tree during a typhoon, even if the spot is close to your office. Everyone, take care. - William

I just learned that first and second period classes have been cancelled at Kumamoto University and Kumamoto Gakuen University. My employer, Kumamoto Gakuen University, sent us an e-mail that said we would be notified at 10 AM about afternoon classes. -- Kirk

As I wrote a minute ago, the winds are likely to pick up in the coming hours. Flooding and landslides resulting from heavy rain, however, are probably a more significant dangers. Here's an image of a machine translation (Google) of Yahoo's evacuation page for Kumamoto.
https://crisis.yahoo.co.jp/evacuation/43/
The best way I know of to access a machine translation of this Japanese page is to use the translation option on Google's Chrome browser. I probably won't have time to provide continuous updates so if you think you may be in a vulnerable area, please check the page directly. -- Kirk