Kirk here. The headline of this article is extremely misleading but there is at least a grain of truth to the story. Here's ChatGPT's account, with citations I have checked out, of what aspects of the story check out and what is overblown.
--- start quote ---
There is a verifiable basis for the story, but it is considerably narrower than the SCMP headline suggests.
First, on August 3, the town of Misato issued an official warning saying that a group of three suspicious people wearing camouflage clothing had been seen within the Uki police jurisdiction. The notice explained some ways residents could distinguish actual SDF personnel and advised people to contact the police or town office if suspicious. Importantly, however, the notice does NOT say that these people stole anything, that they had entered homes, or even that it had been established that they were pretending to be SDF personnel.
https://kumamoto-misato-town.site2.ktaiwork.jp/?p=88
On August 7, FNN reported residents' accounts of people dressed like SDF personnel looking into damaged homes and attempting to enter. One person said that when someone asked to take their photograph, the suspicious people left. This is stronger evidence for the "fake SDF" story, although it is still based on residents' reports rather than suspects who have been identified by police.
The same FNN report says that four or five theft cases involving such things as jewelry and outdoor air-conditioning units had occurred within the Uki Police Station jurisdiction. But these are presented as a separate problem. FNN does NOT say that the camouflage-clad people committed those thefts.
https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/1090712
There is no question that earthquake-related theft itself is real. For example, police arrested a 47-year-old man on August 8 for allegedly stealing an outdoor air-conditioning unit from a house in Kami-Amakusa while the resident was staying elsewhere because of the earthquake. But I have found nothing connecting that suspect with the camouflage-clad people.
https://kumanichi.com/articles/2023485
As recently as August 18, a Japanese article examining the "fake SDF" reports stated explicitly that their purpose was unknown: 「現状、目的は不明」. It said that there was concern that they MIGHT be contemplating crimes against disaster victims — not that this had been established.
https://www.ben54.jp/news/3816
That brings us to what the SCMP journalist himself actually established. He contacted the Kumamoto prefectural government, and spokeswoman Akino Sonoda confirmed that the prefecture had RECEIVED REPORTS about supposed fake SDF personnel and that the police were aware of the reports. But she also said that the prefecture did not know how many reports there were or even which towns were involved.
In other words, the SCMP's own investigation independently confirms the EXISTENCE OF REPORTS. It does not independently establish that the people reported were actually impersonating SDF personnel, still less that they were looters.
The other local person interviewed by SCMP, Kiyoko Date, was not presented as an eyewitness either. She said, "I heard the reports," and said that police were patrolling the area.
I have also found no Japanese report, as of August 19, that any of the camouflage-clad people have been identified or arrested, or that police have linked any of them to an actual theft.
That is why the SCMP headline — "Fake troops loot earthquake-hit homes in Japan's Kumamoto" — goes well beyond the evidence. Its opening sentence similarly says that the men are prowling communities "to loot abandoned homes and businesses." Neither the Japanese reports I have found nor the evidence described in SCMP's own article establishes that.
What appears to be true is more limited: suspicious people wearing camouflage and/or appearing to be SDF personnel have been reported around damaged homes; authorities have taken the reports seriously enough to warn residents; and, separately, genuine thefts have occurred in earthquake-affected areas. What has NOT been established is the crucial connection asserted by the headline — that the supposed fake SDF personnel are the people committing the thefts.
--- end quote ---
P.S. My hypothesis about what happened: Julian Ryall, the author based in Yokohama, wrote a reasonable, carefully sourced draft, and some editor at the South China Morning Post slapped on a sensationalist headline and opening sentence. I have no proof of this other than that the headline and first sentence seem strikingly different in tone and certainty from the rest of the article.